OVERALL ANALYSIS OF FINDINGS
The city of Wuhan, China in early 2020 witnessed symptoms of infection from a deadly virus now known as COVID-19[1]. Within few weeks, the new pathogen has infected millions and killed hundreds of thousands across China leading to an urgent imposition of quarantine for individuals—either after identifying certain symptoms or due to their close contact with infected persons[2]. By March, the UN declared COVID-19 a pandemic as realities of the threat to human existence caused great distress around the world. Massive rates of infection and unprecedented death tolls followed in many countries like Italy, Spain, United States, United Kingdom etc. No country was spared from the political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal shocks[3].
The political consequences of COVID-19 outbreak start with political dissatisfaction among citizens who blame their governments for ‘being unprepared.[4]’ Many of the world’s governments are also suspicious of others for an alleged slow and unenthusiastic response to the virus—especially countries with authoritarian government structures like China[5] and Russia[6].
From the economic angle, COVID-19 has weakened the governance capacity of every nation as variants of the virus sweep across the globe,[7] thereby necessitating suspension of direct diplomatic relations. Thus, COVID-19 consequences include delayed signing of bilateral and multilateral agreements[8]. The virus also prevents governments and intergovernmental agencies from discharging direct oversight functions[9].
The economic consequences of COVID-19 are highlighted by an unprecedented decline in global marker performance[10], especially in the world’s biggest financial markets (China and the United States)[11], and a projected multi-year recession for many countries—as investors seek protection from market volatility by moving their capital from traditional financial instruments to hedge funds. Additionally, COVID-19 has depleted the number of workforces in many countries like the US, Britain and Canada leading to lack of workers and very low productivity levels[12].
On the Sociocultural consequence of COVID-19, great panic on the possibility that the lockdown period could be extended indefinitely caused temporary disruption of many supply chains[13]. Ahead of the stay-at-home order in many countries, people rushed to the supermarkets to stock up on essential goods such as water, food, and even toilet paper[14]. Racism (in the United States) was also an issue as many people became prejudiced to Asians (mainly Chinese) in their local areas due to claims that COVID-19 originated from China[15].
From the technology angle, COVID-19 has resulted groundbreaking achievements in virology (the study of viruses)[16]. Scientific discovery of Moderna and Pfizer vaccines[17], among similar drugs, shows how technology-based studies improved understanding of how the pathogen can be contained, treated and prevented[18].
This brief session on the PEST (Political, Economic, Sociocultural and Technological) aspects of COVID-19 highlights the need for intergovernmental collaborations. It also calls for adequate preparations for natural disasters, health crisis, and similar emergencies in the future[19]. But notwithstanding the negative COVID-19 consequences, this author found these as some of the major benefits:
- Advancement in medical technology[20] has improved clinical care, popularized e-health and telemedicine[21], and provided effective health solutions (vaccines and screening machines) that restored faith in science and hope for mankind.
- Increased relevance of Internet Communication Technology (ICT) software and applications that facilitate remote working[22].
- Emergence of e-learning and e-commerce platforms, as well as forced online communities that allow people to learn, transact business, and engage in online social interactions from any location[23].
CONCLUSION
The COVID-19 pandemic is pushing many primary healthcare systems to their breaking points. The rise of noncommunicable diseases and increasing life expectancy is adding to the pressure, too. Therefore, the speed of economic recovery in the post-Coronavirus United States, Britain, and EU Member States is yet unclear. But economic recession is unavoidable in almost every country as businesses face increased risks from newer and heavily mutated strains of the virus (such as the Delta, Beta and Omicron variant) and other systemic (i.e. PESTEL) disruptions. The ‘grey period’ for full economic recovery could be short- and medium-term (spanning up to 2 years) or long—term (at least 5 years). The overarching goal is for all countries to control the pandemic by slowing down the transmission and reducing mortality associated with COVID-19.
STRATEGIC ROADMAP FOR GLOBAL ECONOMIES
Remarkably, the pandemic has triggered growing concerns about personal hygiene and environmental sustainability. In support of the herculean scientific efforts, technology and solution providers are accelerating and consistently configuring their platforms with virus research workflow protocols and related applications development to arm academic and industry researchers with the tools they need. Technologies, including synthetic biology, informatics and artificial intelligence, are facilitating various application areas, resulting in rapid identification and characterisation of the viral genome, study of the viral life cycle, disease progression, diagnostics, as well as anti-viral therapeutics and vaccine development. Furthermore, advances in bioanalytical and physical characterisation and automation and digitisation are supporting rapid process development for anti-viral biologics.
Together, stakeholders in the global healthcare ecosystem need fresh ideas and approaches in their R&D mandates as technological innovations usher in a new age of vaccine discovery and development.
The global strategic objectives are as follows:
• Mobilize all sectors and communities to ensure that every sector of government and society takes ownership of and participates in the response and in preventing cases through hand hygiene, respiratory etiquette and individual-level physical distancing.
• Control sporadic cases and clusters and prevent community transmission by rapidly finding and isolating all cases, providing them with appropriate care, and tracing, quarantining, and supporting all contacts.
• Suppress community transmission through context-appropriate infection prevention and control measures, population level physical distancing measures, and appropriate and proportionate restrictions on non-essential domestic and international travel.
• Reduce mortality by providing appropriate clinical care for those affected by COVID‑19, ensuring the continuity of essential health and social services, and protecting frontline workers and vulnerable populations.
• Develop safe and effective vaccines and therapeutics that can be delivered at scale and that are accessible based on need.
Every country should be implementing a comprehensive set of measures, calibrated to their capacity and context, to slow down transmission and reduce mortality associated with COVID-19, ultimately with the aim of reaching and/or maintaining a steady state of low-level or no transmission. Appropriate strategies at the national level and subnational level must balance measures that address the direct mortality attributable to COVID-19, the indirect mortality caused by the overwhelming of health systems and the interruption of other essential health and social services, and the acute and long-term detrimental effects on health and wellbeing of the socioeconomic consequences of certain response measures.
Maintaining a steady state of low-level or no transmission is important because, as the pandemic has spread, its public health and socioeconomic impacts have been profound, and have disproportionately affected the vulnerable. Many populations have already experienced a lack of access to routine, essential health services. Migrants, refugees, displaced populations, and residents of high-density and informal settlements, are at a particularly high risk from the interruption of already limited health and social services. The closure of schools increases the risk of some students being neglected, abused or exploited, and risks the interruption of basic services such as school meals. Every action taken now to slow the transmission of COVID-19 is an action that brings forward the day that these services can return.
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